Eras

Where the money came from

The registry documents the funnel as it is now. This is the other axis: the same funnel had different physics when capital was free, and the way into a company that worked under one set of physics stops working under the next. Each era says where the money came from, what that did to hiring, how a person actually got in, and what closed it.

2008–2019

Zero rates and a same-year deduction

For over a decade money cost nothing to borrow and engineering payroll reduced taxable income in the year it was paid. Both facts were policy, both were durable, and together they made an empty seat more expensive than a wrong hire.

The money: From 16 December 2008 the US policy rate sat at its floor for seven years, and the euro-area deposit rate was cut to zero in July 2012 and below zero in June 2014. Under section 174 as it then stood, research and experimental expenditures could be deducted in the year they were paid rather than charged to capital account. Borrowing to fund growth was close to free, and payroll spent building product reduced taxable income immediately.
What it did to hiring: Headcount was the standard use of raised capital. A salary was a current-year deduction and the return on a hire was measured in growth rather than in margin, so teams were sized to a funded plan and the plan came before the revenue. A listing route stayed open to companies without trailing profits throughout the period, which meant payroll could run ahead of earnings without closing off the exit.
How you got in: Demand for people who could do the work ran ahead of supply, so employers hired for potential and trained afterwards. A beginner's salary carried the same immediate deduction as a senior's, which made junior seats cheap to fund against the cost of leaving a seat empty. Self-teaching, a short conversion course and a first job with training attached were ordinary routes in.
What closed it: Not by a contraction. In March 2020 the same policy floor was reimposed and fund flows stepped up by a multiple, and hiring plans were sized to capital raised rather than to current revenue.

The numbers

0.00–0.25% US federal funds target range, held at its floor 16 Dec 2008 – 15 Dec 2015 Federal funds target range and effective rate (FRED) — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Target Range — Upper Limit [DFEDTARU], Lower Limit [DFEDTARL] and Federal Funds Effective Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 27 August 2026.
0.00% → −0.50% ECB deposit facility rate, at or below zero 11 Jul 2012 – 26 Jul 2022 ECB deposit facility rate (FRED) — European Central Bank, ECB Deposit Facility Rate for Euro Area [ECBDFR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 27 August 2026.
100% Research and development payroll deductible in the year it was paid to tax year 2021 26 U.S.C. §174 as it stood before 2022 — 26 U.S.C. §174, United States Code, 2017 Edition. U.S. Government Publishing Office.
15–43% a year US technology listings profitable on trailing earnings 2011–2021 Technology IPO profitability, 1980–2025 (Ritter) — Ritter, Jay R. (2026). Initial Public Offerings: Technology Stock IPOs, Table 4b — Technology and Life Science Company IPOs, 1980–2025. University of Florida.

What this era made ordinary

2020–2021

The record funding years

Two years in which the policy floor returned and venture funding roughly doubled its previous record. Headcount plans were set against committed capital rather than against bookings, and the terms of entry were set on the candidate's side.

The money: The policy rate returned to 0.00–0.25% on 16 March 2020 and stayed there for two years. US venture-backed companies raised $329.6 billion in 2021 against a previous record of $166.6 billion in 2020, and global venture investment reached $671 billion. The listing window stayed open to companies without earnings: of 121 US technology listings in 2021, 21% were profitable on trailing twelve-month earnings.
What it did to hiring: With several years of funding raised at once, headcount was planned against committed capital rather than against bookings, and roles were opened before the work that would fill them was specified. Time-to-fill became the operative constraint, so loops were shortened, offers raised and candidate pools widened across locations. Recruiting functions were themselves staffed to the expanded plan.
How you got in: Employers competed for candidates, so entry terms were set on the candidate's side: compressed interview loops, offers made on shorter evidence, and pay set by competing bids. Entry-level and career-change intake ran at volume, because the alternative was leaving funded seats empty. Holding a current job was not a precondition, and changing employer was the ordinary way to raise pay.
What closed it: Two dated changes. The target range left the floor on 17 March 2022, and for tax years beginning after 31 December 2021 any amount paid in connection with developing software had to be capitalised and amortised over five years — so a developer's salary stopped reducing taxable income in the year it was paid.

The numbers

$329.6B US venture-backed companies raised 2021, against $166.6B in 2020 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, Q4 2021 — PitchBook Data and National Venture Capital Association, Q4 2021 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, 13 January 2022.
$671B Global venture capital invested 2021 KPMG Venture Pulse, Q4 2021 — KPMG Private Enterprise, Venture Pulse Q4 2021: Global analysis of venture funding, 19 January 2022, p. 7.
0.00–0.25% US policy rate, back at its floor 16 Mar 2020 – 16 Mar 2022 Federal funds target range and effective rate (FRED) — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Target Range — Upper Limit [DFEDTARU], Lower Limit [DFEDTARL] and Federal Funds Effective Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 27 August 2026.
21% of 121 US technology listings profitable on trailing earnings 2021 Technology IPO profitability, 1980–2025 (Ritter) — Ritter, Jay R. (2026). Initial Public Offerings: Technology Stock IPOs, Table 4b — Technology and Life Science Company IPOs, 1980–2025. University of Florida.

What this era made ordinary

2022–2023

Rates up, payroll repriced

The policy rate reached its cycle peak, technology equities repriced, every stage of the private funding chain contracted at once, and software payroll became something to amortise rather than deduct. The correction ran through announced reductions rather than through attrition.

The money: The federal funds target range reached a cycle peak of 5.25–5.50% effective 27 July 2023 and was held there for about fourteen months, and the technology-weighted NASDAQ Composite fell 36.4% from its November 2021 close to its December 2022 low. Every stage of the private chain contracted together: US venture deal value fell from $348.0 billion in 2021 to $170.6 billion in 2023, exit value hit a decade low of $61.5 billion, and new fund commitments fell to a six-year low of $66.9 billion. From tax years beginning after 31 December 2021, software development costs were amortised over five years for domestic research and fifteen for foreign research instead of being deducted when paid.
What it did to hiring: Payroll was now both harder to refinance and slower to deduct, so plans were cut to the capital already in hand. Reductions were announced rather than absorbed through attrition: a tracker of publicly reported technology layoffs records 165,269 employees in 2022 and 265,660 in 2023, its highest year. Open requisitions were closed as well as filled positions eliminated, and the recruiting capacity built for the previous era was itself reduced.
How you got in: Hiring narrowed to the replacement of specific departures, which meant a posted role described work someone had recently been doing. The evidence employers would accept narrowed with it: recent experience in the same title, at similar scale, in the same stack. The routes that worked when employers hired for potential produced no offers, because the seats being filled were defined by an incumbent's job description rather than by a plan.
What closed it: The financial conditions reversed without the reduction reversing. The target range came off its peak on 18 September 2024 and the immediate domestic deduction was restored by statute in July 2025, but the headcount removed during the correction was not restored — so the reduced level carried forward as the baseline rather than as a trough.

The numbers

5.25–5.50% Peak US federal funds target range 27 Jul 2023 – 18 Sep 2024 FOMC policy rate decisions (Open Market Operations) — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Open Market Operations, policy tools archive.
−36.4% NASDAQ Composite, record close to cycle low 19 Nov 2021 – 28 Dec 2022 NASDAQ Composite Index (FRED) — NASDAQ OMX Group, NASDAQ Composite Index [NASDAQCOM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 27 August 2026.
$348.0B → $170.6B US venture deal value 2021 → 2023 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, Q4 2023 — PitchBook Data and National Venture Capital Association, Q4 2023 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, January 2024.
$61.5B US venture exit value, a decade low 2023 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, Q4 2023 — PitchBook Data and National Venture Capital Association, Q4 2023 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, January 2024.
5 years domestic, 15 foreign Software payroll amortised rather than deducted tax years from 2022 26 U.S.C. §174 after the 2017 amendment — 26 U.S.C. §174, United States Code, 2023 Edition. U.S. Government Publishing Office. Amendment: Pub. L. 115-97 §13206(a).
165,269 → 265,660 Tracked technology layoffs, not a census 2022 → 2023 Tracked technology layoffs (Layoffs.fyi) — Layoffs.fyi — Tech and Startup Layoff Tracker, per-year pages, retrieved 27 August 2026.

What this era made ordinary

2024–2026 · still running

A fixed number of seats

The conditions that made hiring expensive were reversed; the number of positions was not. The contraction now runs through the hiring channel rather than the separation channel, which is why it is competition for a fixed and shrinking number of seats rather than a shortage of qualified people.

The money: The tax treatment that penalised payroll was undone: section 174A, added on 4 July 2025, allows domestic research expenditure to be deducted when paid for tax years beginning after 31 December 2024, balances capitalised under the 2022–2024 rules may be recovered in one year or over two, and smaller taxpayers may elect back to 2022. Policy rates came off their cycle peak in September 2024. The inputs that made hiring expensive were reversed. The number of positions was not.
What it did to hiring: The contraction runs through the hiring channel, not the separation channel. Official gross hires in the US information sector fell from 1,270,000 in 2022 to 903,000 in 2025 — down 28.9% — while official layoffs and discharges in the same series were roughly flat at 451,000, 399,000, 395,000 and 447,000. Openings averaged 224,000 a month in 2022 and 121,000 in 2025, and stood at 90,000 in June 2026. Sector payrolls fell from 3,115,000 in November 2022 to 2,780,000 in July 2026.
How you got in: Incumbents vacate few seats: the information-sector quits rate was 1.1% in June 2026 against 1.9% in June 2022, and the total-private hires rate 3.7% against 4.7%. Applications per open role rose from 116 in 2022 to 244 in 2025 across one platform's benchmark. Software postings ran 69.3% senior and 4.5% entry-level in the first quarter of 2026, and payroll records show employment of developers aged 22–25 down close to 20% from its late-2022 peak while older ages in the same occupation did not fall. Entry now means succeeding a specific incumbent rather than being trained into a funded seat.

The numbers

100% Immediate deduction restored for domestic research tax years from 2025 26 U.S.C. §174A — domestic research expenditures — 26 U.S.C. §174A, Domestic research or experimental expenditures. Added by Pub. L. 119-21 §70302(a), 4 July 2025.
1,270,000 → 903,000 Gross hires, US information sector 2022 → 2025 Hires, information sector (BLS JOLTS) — US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, series JTU510000000000000HIL (Hires, information, total US, not seasonally adjusted).
451,000 → 447,000 Layoffs and discharges, US information sector — roughly flat 2022 → 2025 Layoffs and discharges, information sector (BLS JOLTS) — US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, series JTU510000000000000LDL (Layoffs and discharges, information, total US, not seasonally adjusted).
224,000/mo → 90,000 Job openings, US information sector 2022 average → Jun 2026 Job openings, information sector (BLS JOLTS) — US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, series JTS510000000000000JOL (Job openings, information, total US, seasonally adjusted).
3,115,000 → 2,780,000 Information-sector payrolls Nov 2022 → Jul 2026 US information-sector employment (BLS CES) — US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, series CES5000000001 (All employees, thousands, information, seasonally adjusted).
1.9% → 1.1% Quits rate, US information sector Jun 2022 → Jun 2026 Quits rate, information sector (BLS JOLTS) — US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, series JTS510000000000000QUR (Quits rate, information, seasonally adjusted).
4.7% → 3.7% Hires rate, total private Jun 2022 → Jun 2026 Hires rate, total private (BLS JOLTS) — US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, series JTS100000000000000HIR (Hires rate, total private, seasonally adjusted).
116 → 244 Applications received per open role, one platform's benchmark 2022 → 2025 Applications per opening (Greenhouse hiring benchmarks) — Greenhouse, The Hire Standard: hiring benchmarks report, North America, March 2026.
69.3% senior, 4.5% entry Software postings by level, one job board Q1 2026 Seniority mix of software postings (Indeed Hiring Lab) — Indeed Hiring Lab, The Labor Market Is Tilting Toward Seniority, 23 July 2026.
≈ −20% Employment of software developers aged 22–25 late 2022 → Sep 2025 Employment of young software developers (Stanford Digital Economy Lab) — Brynjolfsson, E., Chandar, B., & Chen, R. (2025). Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence. Stanford Digital Economy Lab, 13 November 2025.
149,023 Announced technology job cuts, not a census Jan–Jul 2026 Announced job cuts, technology sector (Challenger, Gray & Christmas) — Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Job Cut Announcement Report, July 2026.

What this era made ordinary

Every figure on this page links to the record it came from.